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Change won't come easily for dead-last finishing Phils

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The Phillies wrapped up the 2014 season by matching their record from last year at 73-89. They finished last in the division for the first time since 2000.

Attendance fell below three million after surpassing that mark the previous seven seasons. In fact, this year was the lowest attendance in the 11-year history of Citizens Bank Park and the first time they averaged less than 30,000 fans per game.

Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. is promising some major changes but that won't be easy.

Five of the eight regular position players have guaranteed contracts for 2015 totaling $62.5 million.

The most likely to be traded are Marlon Byrd, Ryan Howard, and Domonic Brown.

Byrd led the team in home runs (25) but his .264 average was a 27 point drop from last season.

Howard had the least productive full season of his career hitting .223 with 23 homers and 95 RBIs. He also had 190 strikeouts.

Since Howard still has $60 million remaining on his contract, the only way the Phillies will be able to move him is if they absorb a large portion of that salary.

Brown hit 17 fewer home runs and had 20 less RBIs than last season. His average also dropped from .272 to .235.

Ben Revere led the team in batting average (.306), hits (184), and stolen bases (49) but his re-signing is still a question mark because of his defense and below-average arm.

The Phillies have big hopes that Maikel Franco will help boost the offense.

Between single- and double-A ball in 2013, Franco hit .320 with 31 homers and 103 RBIs. At the triple-A level this year, he struggled for the first three months (302 AB) hitting .209 with 5 HR and 31 RBIs.

However, over the final months of the season (219 AB) he hit .324 with 11 HR and 47 RBIs.

The greatest hope of the Phillies, though, is to sign Cuban defector Yasmani Tomas. He is a right-handed, power-hitting outfielder but could demand a contract approaching $100 million.

The pitching staff will also have some changes.

Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee will be the top two starting pitchers, assuming Hamels doesn't get traded.

A.J. Burnett said he plans to retire. Despite a good career, he had a poor season and led the majors in losses (18), earned runs allowed (109), and walks issued (96).

Kyle Kendrick was inconsistent as usual and won't be re-signed. In eight years with the Phillies, he compiled a record of 74-68 with a 4.42 ERA.

David Buchanan is likely to win one of the open spots in the rotation. In his first 10 starts with the Phils, he posted an ERA of 4.40. In his last 10 starts, he had an impressive 3.09 ERA including a 2.86 ERA in September.

The other two positions will be filled by Jerome Williams, Jonathan Pettibone, Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez or some free agents.

Williams made a strong case for himself by going 4-2 with a 2.83 ERA in nine starts with the Phillies.

Pettibone did well with the Phils in 2013 but made only a few starts this year because of a shoulder injury. He finally underwent surgery in June but is still hoping to be ready for spring training.

The Phillies took a chance when they signed Gonzalez for 3 years and $12 million before he ever threw a pitch in the majors. The Cuban pitcher was called up the last month and gave up runs in two of his six relief appearances.

Aaron Nola, the Phillies first-round draft pick this year, will probably not be on the opening-day roster but could find his way into the rotation at some point.

During his final two collegiate seasons, Nola compiled a 23-2 record with an ERA of 1.52 and was named SEC Pitcher of the Year in both 2013 and 2014.

The relief pitchers should include Jonathan Papelbon, Ken Giles, Justin DeFratus, and Cesar Jimenez.

Giles recorded the lowest ERA (1.18) for a rookie in Phillies' history.

Others that may be in the bullpen are Jake Diekman, a fireballer who lacks control, and Luis Garcia, the Phillies' minor-league pitcher of the year.

As the Phillies' season has ended, so have my columns. I would like to thank The News-Item for giving me the opportunity to write about the Phillies this year. I invite readers to email me at cranewel@yahoo.com with your thoughts, comments, or just to say hello.

(Schott, of Mount Carmel, is a guest columnist for The News-Item)


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