There are only two sure things about this weekend's District 4 AA wrestling tournament - it's at Williamsport Area High School and the number of unbeaten wrestlers in the district will drop by at least 33 percent.
That's because four of the six unbeatens are in two weight classes, and one of them will have to lose at each weight. One of those weight classes is 140, and will feature Line Mountain's Travis Erdman, who will most decidedly be an underdog despite his 36-0 record.
That's because Montoursville's Luke Frey has a resume which includes not only a 29-0 record this season but a career mark of 145-4, including a state championship, runnerup and fourth-place finish. But Erdman is naturally bigger, and may (may) have a strength advantage.
This is one of the most anticipated matchups in recent district history.
The other likely matchup of unbeatens will be at 103, with Williamson sophomore Logan Everett (32-0) the top seed and Sullivan County freshman Shawn Nitcznski (29-0) number two.
The other two unbeatens are Lewisburg 171-pounder Nathaniel Brown (28-0), a state runner-up last season, and Danville 215-pounder Dylan Dailey (15-0), who has had an abbreviated season because of mononucleosis and is seeded only fourth because of it.
Shamokin has three wrestlers - Brandon Pesarchick (130), Josh Lahr (135) and Wes Tillett (285) with a combined six state appearances and four state medals. Ironically Pesarchick, with three trips to Her-
shey and a state placewinner twice, will have the hardest road. Coming up from 125, where he was a state runner-up, is Benton's Coltin Fought, and Montoursville's David Batkowski is another returning state qualifier at that weight.
There is only one returning state champ from 2010, Line Mountain's Zain Retherford, but 10 returning state placewinners, including three runners-up - Frey, Brown and Fought - and nine others who qualified for the state tournament last season. One of those, Lahr, placed the year before, and Erdman, who placed eighth in 2009, had to sit out last postseason because of a broken hand.
By straight winning percentage, the toughest weight class is 152, where the 12 competitors are a combined 313-79 (.799).
Here's a look at each weight:
103: Everett and Nitcznski should meet in the final, and Everett might be a slight favorite because of his year of experience. Everett must however, get by Benton's Matt Welliver, a state qualifier last season but who is only 11-8 against rugged competition, on his side of the bracket. Canton's Daniel Killian (28-6), Towanda's Kyle Blascak (30-12) are also solid contenders.
112: Retherford's weight class, pure and simple. His main competition is Mifflinburg's David Sheesley, whom he has already beaten twice this season, once by disqualifica-
tion and last week by a pin. Sheesley (24-7) wrestled much more aggressively against Retherford at the Southern Sectional, but the Line Mountain wrestler is a tad too quick for him. South Williamsport's Andrew Gipe (25-6) and Montoursville's Caleb Pearson (25-9) are very dark horses.
119: Benton's Colt Cotten (30-4) beat Milton's Eric Wolfe (27-3) for third last season at 112, and those two should square off in the final, since both went on to the state tournament. There should be quite a battle for the other three advancing spots between Troy's Braden Calkins (31-2), Warrior Run's Jared Watson (27-3), Line Mountain's Mason Zimmerman (26-11) and Midd-West's Zach Heeter (24-10).
125: Towanda's Cody Wheeler (39-1) was runnerup at 112 last season, and should beat Northeast Bradford's Zack Green (34-2) in the final. Line Mountain's Seth Lansberry (30-7) and Mount Carmel's Nick Dusendschine (29-7) are in the hunt to advance.
130: Fought is 30-4, Pesarchick 25-5, Batkowski 27-1. Between them they have six state appearances and three places. Fought has the highest finish (second) but Pesarchick has the most appearances (three) and medals (two). Among the rest of the field, Wyalusing's Ryan Hart is 25-6, Sayre's Jesse Buck 26-5 and Central Columbia's Aaron Johnson 23-3.
135: Lahr (26-5) is healthy this season, and that counts for something. He should hit the final against Towanda's Caleb Willey (36-4). Line Mountain's Adam Kritzer (28-11) wrestled Lahr well in the sectional final, and other contenders are Hughesville's Kyle Barnes (28-3), Warrior Run's Brad Hain (25-7) and Troy's Cyle Ercolino (28-4). Mount Carmel's Dylan Hornberger (26-4) will have to beat Willey in the quarterfinals for a shot.
140: The final should be Frey and Erdman. After that, a race for third between Wyalusing's Joe Champluvier (25-6), Central Columbia's Herbie Shannon (26-6) and Towanda's Jimmy Sheets (31-11).
145: Muncy's Troy Hembury (33-4) and Towanda's Zack Ripic (34-5) are likely finalists, with Central Columbia's Ben Emmett (24-6) and Southern Columbia's Brian Watkins (26-2) serious contenders as well.
152: Muncy's Zach Strickland (34-3) and Central Columbia's Kurt Meske (29-3) might pair off in a rematch of the East Sectional final. Montgomery's Josh Galentine (28-2), Wellsboro's Jake Clemens (34-4), Danville's Kody Getkin (26-1), Sayre's Joseph Licata (28-4) and Shamokin's Lee Supsic (21-7) are part of a very solid field.
160: Mifflinburg's Ty Walter (31-3) and Danville's Garrett Llewellyn (27-4) could meet in a rematch of their South Sectional final. But Mount Carmel's Brett Przekop (28-6), Northeast Bradford's Jake Balchikonis (24-4) and Montoursville's Eli Rusczyk (24-10) all should have something to say about it.
171: Brown is a shade better than Wyalusing's Mike Cobb (30-1). After those two, the best wrestlers are former North Schuylkill wrestler Garrett VanDeMark of Towanda (36-4) and Benton's Jake Mankey (23-8).
189: Muncy senior Ryan Hembury (33-3) and Lewisburg's impressive sophomore Brandon Smith (26-1) appear to be on a collision course for the final, but the woods are thick with others seeking the throne, including Bloomsburg's Remington Weigle (17-3), Towanda's R.J. Forbes (33-10), Line Mountain sophomore Kenny Rothermel (24-13) and Wyalusing's Anthony Clark (26-6).
215: Milton's Ryan Solomon (26-1) was sixth in the state as a freshman, quite an achievement for someone in the upper weights. Dailey's lack of action this season could hurt in a field which also included Hughesville's Brad Poust (15-2), North Penn's Nathan Stettler (28-5) and Bloomsburg's Ryan Longenberger (22-3).
285: Tillett (25-5) is the favorite but nothing comes easy in a class where one takedown can mean everything. Towanda's Aaron Schultz (36-4), Lewisburg's Sean Charest (21-4), Mifflinburg freshman Nazar Mironenko (20-10), Central Columbia's Eric McCracken (28-3) and Hughesville's Derek Earnest (26-7) are all quality kids.