Think of the playoffs as Shangri La.
In the playoffs, the streets are paved with gold. No dream is too big and anything is possible.
The playoffs can also be a place of last gasps, a dark place reserved, designed, to be the executioner's ax for team's previous stated hopes and dreams.
In the playoffs...
Well, to know what the playoffs can be, whether that be a Willie Wonka golden ticket or a trippy ride down a dirty river, you have to get there first.
Of the five teams The News-Item covers, only one seems mathematically set to make the playoffs for the bajillionith year in a row - Southern Columbia.
For all the rest, Shamokin, Mount Carmel, Line Mountain and North Schuylkill, the ground is shaky, at best.
District 4 Class AAA
The skinny: Four teams make it into the tournament, with the champion playing the winner out of tournament comprised of District 5, 6, 8 and 9 teams in the first round of the PIAA playoffs.
Biggest question: Is Shamokin in or not?
The answer is not an easy yes or no. Having witnessed East Juniata's loss against Line Mountain, it might be very easy to say unequivocably yes to the Indians' chances. But with just 100 points separating the two and the Tigers have a few explosive athletes, a win or two more is not out of the question. Things are so dire near the bottom of the rankings that if Shamokin didn't win another game and Columbia-Montour Vo Tech or Jersey Shore ran the table, they could get it in.
Projections: Picking a winner is a slightly more attractive concept than kissing a pig in a poke. There's only a 25 percent chance of being right.
For arguments sake, Shamokin will make it. After that, the Indians have as good a shot at defending their title from last year as they did last year. It will require two wins on the road again, but unlike last year, the schedule is not set up to be kind to Shamokin. The good news is that every team above the Indians is beatable in a one-and-done situation.
What games are left: Shamokin has to travel to Southern Columbia tonight, is at home against Shikellamy next week and ends the season at Mount Carmel.
District 4 Class AA
The skinny: Eight teams make it into the tournament, with the champion playing the District 3 winner in the first round of the PIAA playoffs.
Biggest question: After three straight losses in the middle of the season followed by two big wins, are the Red Tornadoes' chances for real, or is it a lot of blustering?
Mount Carmel's fans will want to call the mid-season slide a speed bump, a reality check on the way to greater glory. Realists will point out the Red Tornadoes' shaky defense and propensity to give up turnovers on offense.
But look around, who on the District 4 Class AA rankings list is unbeatable? Mount Carmel beat Central Columbia and Lewisburg, and those two square off tonight. Loyalsock and Montoursville beat the Red Tornadoes in tightly contested battles and are currently rated below Mount Carmel. Of the three teams left, take it for what it's worth but Danville was only a touchdown better than Shamokin and Athens and Troy could be the greatest thing since sliced bread but play in the faraway land of the Northern Tier. Either way, the Red Tornadoes are a lock to at least enter the field.
Projections: Ugh, this again... The way things are currently, Mount Carmel could make it through to the finals without playing the one real unknown in the field - Danville. But in that path are possible rematches with Central or Montoursville. Picking Mount Carmel might put us in the good graces for a week, but a consistent defensive effort would go a long way toward convincing us.
District 4 Class A
The skinny: Four teams make it into the tournament, with the champions playing the District 2 winner in the first round of the PIAA playoffs.
Biggest question: Can anyone unseat Southern Columbia?
That task, as usual, seems to come down to just Line Mountain, but according the rankings, Southern would open with Bloomsburg and that's not a gimme. If Bloomsburg falters and is overtaken by Sayre or Muncy, Southern cruises to a finals rematch with the Eagles.
Projections: Southern at home in November? Smart money picks the Tigers and lets it ride. Line Mountain is always just there and it's truly a shame that only one team from the district is represented in the PIAA playoffs.