The number of area wrestlers advancing to this weekend's District 4-AA meet through last weekend's Southern Sectional was kind of surprising after a tough dual meet season.
Things, however, will get appreciably tougher at Willliamsport tonight and Saturday.
As a general rule of thumb, you can usually whittle contestants down by half as each week of the tournament season goes. That means the 23 area wrestlers who advanced last weekend will likely be down to 11 or 12 for next week's AA Northeast Regional.
After a look at each of the brackets, I have 11 area kids getting through. But there is a good chance none of them will emerge as champions. That's not a knock at any of our contestants - some are legitimate state placewinning contenders.
It's just that some of our area's best kids - Line Mountain's Seth Lansberry and Adam Kritzer, for instance (both returning state qualifiers) - are at very tough weights in what is generally conceded to be the strongest AA district in the state.
Here's a look at each weight class. I won't go out on a limb and publicly predict each class, but I have made my 1-5 picks at each weight and, assigning points on a 5-4-3-2-1 basis, I'll let you know my score before the regional. Maximum number of points would be 210:
106: Williamson sophomore Tyrus Hamblin (27-1), the North champ, should make it to the final from the top half of the bracket. The bottom half is more wide open.
Either East runnerup Taylor Johnson (26-6) of Central Columbia or Line Mountain's Cameron Newman (22-13) look like his finals opponent. Another solid wrestler is Towanda's Kyle Blascak (28-6). Total record of the field is 263-99 (.727).
113: A solid class, led by Mifflinburg state placewinner David Sheesley (23-3). Sheesley has had some health issues this year and will have to get through Sullivan County's Shawn Nitcznski (27-1), who lost the East final to Benton's Matt Welliver (25-5). Montoursville's Caleb Pearson (30-1) is a roadblock for Welliver. The field also includes another 30-match winner and two 29-match winners. Total record: 275-81 (.773).
120: Williamson's Logan Everett (29-1) is ranked fifth in the state and will likely meet Southern Columbia freshman Kent Lane (25-3) in the semifinals. Mifflinburg's Cole Walter (29-4), who beat Lane in the sectional final, is ranked fourth, and will probably meet savvy veteran Andrew Gipe of South Williamsport (21-3) in the other semi. Troy's Clint Vermilya is 30-4.
126: Warrior Run's Jared Watson (32-1) and Line Mountain's Mason Zimmerman (28-10) should meet in the final. Total record: 276-90 (.754).
132: Probably the best class in the field. Defending state runnerup Colt Cotten (27-2) of Benton and Line Mountain's Lansberry (34-2) should meet in the final, but the battle for the three remaining advancing spots should be a dilly between Wyalsuing's Ryan Hart (33-4), Warrior Run's Brad Hain (28-5), Sayre's Jesse Buck (29-2), Shamokin's Dane Shovlin (24-7) and Midd-West's Zach Heeter (34-2). Total record: 294-74 (.798).
138: Another state placewinner from 2011, Montoursville's David Batkowski (31-1) is the favorite. East Juniata's Sean Heggs (31-1) and Northeast Bradford's Zack Green (31-1), ranked ninth and 12th in the state, respectively, should battle it out on the other side of the bracket. Muncy's Heath Strickland (32-5) also lurks out there. Total record: 292-90 (.764).
145: Two-time state qualifier Adam Kritzer (30-5) of Line Mountain looks like a finalist against unbeaten Kyle Barnes (31-0) of Hughesville. Muncy sophomore Isaiah Bobotas (31-6), Central Columbia's Demetrius Starr (27-7) and Wyalusing's Joe Champluvier (26-9) are other contenders. Total record: 273-83 (.767).
152: Some real good wrestlers, some not in the same class. Towanda's Zack Ripic (32-2), Milton's Ryan Preisch (28-1) and Benton's Jeric Kasunic (23-7) lead the field. Total record: 242-94 (.720).
160: Mifflinburg junior Ty Walter (18-1) is ranked third in the state; Central Columbia's Kurt Meske is 31-0 and ranked 10th. They should meet in the final. Other top contenders are Line Mountain's Cody Rebuck (a misleading 27-12), Wyalusing's Tyler Fenton (a misleading 29-12) and Troy's Blake Colton (27-7). Total record: 246-97 (.717).
170: Muncy's Troy Hembury (33-1), ranked second in the state, is the class here. He should meet Wyalusing's Dan Frankenfield (31-8) in the final, but Mount Carmel's Brett Przekop (24-1), Montgomery's Garrett Shnyder (29-6) and Line Mountain's Erik Smeltz (18-9) all should have some say in the matter. Total record: 281-78 (.783).
182: A pretty wide-open field. Benton senior Jake Mankey (32-1) and Lewisburg senior Patrick Ostrowsky (27-3) head the pack, with Wyalusing's Anthony Clark (33-4), Muncy's Skylar Ebner (30-6) and Warrior Run's Daniel Breech (31-3) all 30-match winners. Total record: 279-87 (.762).
195: Milton junior Ryan Solomon (25-1), ranked first in the state, beat Lewisburg junior Brandon Smith (26-2), ranked sixth, in the West Sectional final last week. There will almost certainly be a rematch in the finals. The best of the rest of the field looks like Wellsboro's Chad Daugherty (27-4), and Bloomsburg's Ryan Longenberger (22-4), with Southern Columbia's Matt Moore (13-7) a threat to advance to the regional. Total record: 227-99 (.696).
220: This should be very competitive. Central Columbia's Eric McCracken (30-3), North Penn's Nathan Stettler (31-2), Southern Columbia's Jake Becker (22-4), Montgomery's John Goetz (31-4) and Wyalusing's Dylan Otis (33-6) all are threats to reach the top of the podium. Total record: 253-85 (.749).
285: Mifflinburg sophomore Nazar Mironenko (33-2) looks like the best of a good field. Hughesville's Derek Earnest (23-3), Wyalusing's Clayton Force (31-7), Central Columbia's Alex Shiber (28-7), Southern's Trent Donlan (19-7) and Midd-West's Jake Heintzelman (28-7) are all tough. Total record: 279-94 (.748).
Hall inductees
The lastest group of inductees into the District 4 Wrestling Coaches Hall of Fame will get their moments on the mat before the AAA and AA championship bouts.
Bob Supsic, Curt Reid, Steve Deckard, Daniel Hinkel and Larry Davidson will be inducted at the AAA tournament tonight at Jersey Shore. Dale Sullivan, Steve Anceravage, Paul Wysocki, Troy Erdman and Frank Dimon will be inducted Saturday at the AA tournament.